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My first big mistake

If there's anything you should know as a new trader it's this: You WILL make mistakes

There are no known exceptions to this rule, take for example Dave Portnoy:

Dave is a new day trader. He got into trading after he couldn't bet on sports any more due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As an experienced bettor he's familiar with many aspects of betting - don't get emotional, only go in when you think you have an edge, have a strategy, etc…

As a new day trader Dave is not doing well. At the end of April, 2020 he was down $647,000.

Dave is also the founder of Barstool Sports - so don't feel that bad for him, but even someone as savvy as Dave Portnoy loses.

This is my story of my 1st big loss, and the lessons I took away from it

As a general rule I stay away from ‘booming’ penny stocks. You'll see them, they go from $0.30/share to over $1.00 overnight - usually literally. Wary of being caught in a pump-and-dump and not wanting to lose it all - I would just marvel and imagine - what if?!?

UAVS (aka AgEagle) is (or was depending on when you're reading this) a drone company focused on using drones in the agricultural industry. On April 15, 2020 their stock started to spike, going from $0.34 to $1.07. There was a lot of chatter - as there usually is - around the stock. Again I marveled and thought,

What if I had been in that jump? Even just $100 of that stock would be worth more than $300!

But I steered clear - I knew it wasn't going to last, it was a pump and dump, - I moved on. By April 28th it had still not receded from the chat rooms. It had fallen off it's $1.04 peak to $0.69, but was still mentioned regularly in chat rooms. Then it jumped again.

I went in after the 2nd spike, and in about 30 seconds I had made 10%.

I took my earnings, and walked away.

I shopped the market for a while, but nothing seemed to look like a good entry. So I peeked in at UAVS again, and it had gone up another 10%.

I can do it again.

I waited for a small dip, and took a slightly larger position, and waited. It dropped 2%, but I hadn't set my STOP LOSS so I was still in.

It will bounce back and then some! I can lower my average price and get more cheaper!

I went deeper into the position - doubling my investment, lowering my average price to ensure a profit. The stock dropped another 2% again. I saw no reason why it should - everything I felt told me that it would recover and I could at least get my investment back, even possibly a large gain.

It'll be back, a little more to lower my average, and I'll lower my LIMIT order.

Another investment… And I waited.

And waited. It dropped another 1%… then 5%… My gut was ripping itself apart, as I set a stop loss at 8%.

Suddenly… everything stopped.

Literally.

Trading was stopped.

I frantically searched for why it had been stopped.

I found out there was a board meeting to discuss earnings for the 1st quarter. It was at this point where everything started to become surreal. You READ about this stuff as a new trader. You think, that won't be me - I'd never do that. Here I was - living through it.

I'm well educated, I've been a software developer for 16 years, I've been a manager, and a team lead. I've invested, day traded, researched stocks, read books on trading. I even lost money on ‘get rich quick’ schemes when I was young - and learned from it.

But here I was… Unable to do anything but wait.

The minutes ticked by.

30 minutes…

45…

Then it dawned on me.

Most if not all of my money was gone; and I had no recourse that would make it right.

I set a STOP LOSS and waited.

and waited…

It felt like an eternity…

When the stock started trading again it was worthless. I got out at less-than-half what my investment was.

Behind the scenes it turns out that the stock's inflation was based on a rumored partnership with Amazon. The rumor was based on a video clip that showed “Amazon x AgEagle” and an un-boxing. The trade freeze was during the company's earnings call - there was no partnership announced. The President, and the CEO stepped down from the company “for personal reasons”… There was nothing left of value in the market except for some hope for those left holding their now worthless stock.

I lost almost 30% of my account that day.

I was shaken.

I talked with people in chat, and friends.

I told my wife about my losses.

I accepted what happened, and they helped me rebound.

What I learned

  1. Have a support team
  2. Always set a STOP
  3. Do NOT lower your average by buying in again
  4. Don't believe the hype
  5. Don't get into something without having an exit plan
  6. Trade reputable companies
  7. It's not about how many shares you buy
Have a Support Team

If you don't remember the first thing I said in this post, please read it again. With that understood, your support team will help you through your mistakes. Day trading is NOT a get-rich-quick scheme. You're going to lose some money - especially when you first start. Don't jump in with the expectation to get rich, and don't go in without support. Be up front with a friend, family, and definitely your significant other, tell them what you're doing, and what your goals are. If you hide your project, you'll have to hide your pain, and that's not good.

Always set a STOP

It's tempting to just ‘wait it out’ and wait for a stock to rebound. But the reality is: it might not, or it might take days, or a week, or more to get back to even where you would have a STOP set. Decide what you're comfortable losing on a trade, set a STOP at that point, and do not lower it. That's your safety. It will suck to lose 2%, or 6%. But that's better than 10, 20, or 30%, or having 30% of your funds tied up in a stock that you're just waiting to ‘bounce back’.

Don't lower your average

I initially heard this concept from one of my managers in the early 2000s. At the time I told him to buy nVidia after they launched a new card. At the time it was trading at $11… it's now over $300. But I digress, and I hope he didn't buy in - I didn't like him. The idea of ‘lowering your average’ comes from buying additional stock at some lower price to reduce your break-even point; and it's true it does. I've done it - successfully turning a 1% loss into a 1% gain. But I tied up a large portion of my funds for days waiting for the stock to recover. And there are times when you will not get your money back - ever. Minimize your loss by getting out of the stock - not by buying more. Having your car break down sucks; but buying another broken down car doesn't fix the first one.

Don't believe the hype

As I mentioned in my story, I've been around the block. I heard the stories, and I avoided ‘hyped’ stocks. Just don't do it. Ever. It's not worth it.

You'll have to watch stocks jump and wish you could get into one of THOSE stocks.

Don't.

Do.

It.

Don't get into something without having an exit plan

As above, you should set a STOP order, but what happens if the stock jumps 2%? Will you move the STOP up - potentially giving up later gains for protecting your gains now? Will you ‘swing’ this stock for a few days in order to see your profit? Will you let it hit your STOP order without regret?

That last one is a trick question.

You'll always regret ‘the one that got away’. You shouldn't get into a position without feeling sure that you'll make some target profit. But have an exit plan.

Becoming comfortable with the idea that you're going to be wrong as much as you're right is one of the struggles as a day trader.

Trade Reputable Companies

You can usually tell a ‘good’ stock at a glance. If it's traded under $1 for a year, and it's now over $1 - that should be a warning sign. If it's a company you've heard of - chances are it's a stable stock. The goal here is to ensure that if you end up holding the stock longer than planned: you have a reasonable expectation that the stock will recover. Think Best Buy, Amazon, Home Depot, AMD, Netflix, Apple - those companies aren't going anywhere, and they should eventually recover.

It's not about how many shares you can buy

Early on you'll see two types of traders - big wallet traders, and you. Everyone will seem to have a larger trading account than you, and that may be true. But if you start with a small amount, just $500 - that's enough to buy almost any stock on the market. And if you can buy one share you get the same percentage gain as the person who buys 100 shares. And that is what the ‘game’ is about. It's not about throwing down and taking 1000 shares of Netflix (NFLX).

It's about the percentage.

Sure the person who buys 400,000 worth of Netflix will gain $8,000 on that 2% stock movement, while you make $8. But there are two things to remember:

  1. That person would lose $8,000 if the stock went down 2%
  2. Gaining 2% a day will double your money in 36 days of trading

Point #2 should be your focus. And it's a big one. Imagine if you could double your money in 36 days of trading… There are 253 days of trading a year (give or take) - if you could manage 2% on average, you would double your money 7 times. So your $500 account becomes $1000, then $2000, then $4000, then $8000, then $16,000, $32,000, and then $64,000.

That's on a 2% gain.

On a $500 account.

In one year.

Focus on your percentage - not your dollars or shares.

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